The 2026 Tour de France will once again be one of the most important sporting events of the year. Undoubtedly the most important when it comes to cycling.
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Pogacar vs Vingegaard, or perhaps not just them, three weeks of intense stages, mountains and time trials, the usual marathon of emotions and stories to tell, with only one winner on the podium in Paris on July 26th.
Let’s therefore analyze the next Grande Boucle through the antepost odds of the main Italian betting sites, always reminding you that on Assopoker there are the sections Pronostici Oggi and Schedine Oggi.
Tour de France 2026: where to watch on TV
As usual, it will be broadcast on Eurosport and Rai channels, from July 4th to 26th.
Recent roll of honor
There’s no escaping a small number of names if we look at the last 10 editions.
- Tadej Pogacar (4 times: 2020, 2021, 2024, 2025)
- Jonas Vingegaard (2 times: 2022, 2023)
- Chris Froome (2 times: 2016, 2017)
- Geraint Thomas, Egan Bernal (1 time: 2018 and 2019)
It’s quite striking to say, but two of these winners have retired (Thomas officially, Froome almost: he currently has no team) and Bernal has been suffering from serious physical problems for at least 3-4 years.
In short, we shouldn’t escape the usual two, the other winners of the Grande Boucle who are fully active.
Odds for the final victory of the Tour de France 2026
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite, as is customary, aiming for his fifth victory in Paris (he would be the youngest ever to achieve it) and his seventh consecutive podium, which would be a revision of his own record.
| Operator |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar | 1.40 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Vingegaard | 4.00 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Evenepoel | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| Lipowitz | 18.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| Almeida | 18.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| Ayuso | 20.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 |
The umpteenth two-man race (with a variation)
From 2020 onwards, the Tour de France has essentially been a two-man race between Pogacar and Vingegaard. Although in the year of his first triumph in the Grande Boucle, the Slovenian beat his compatriot Primoz Roglic in a sprint.
After that, the top two spots on the podium have always been occupied by the same two cyclists, Pogi and Vingo.
After all, the battle is between two teams, UAE and Visma, which are two powerhouses with infinite budgets compared to the competition, and any “domestique” from one of these teams would be a captain elsewhere.
That’s how cycling works, with few variations, in theory. However, we will definitely see one variation in 2026, barring injuries or crashes: for the first time, Vingegaard will participate in the Giro d’Italia.
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The Dane’s goal is not only to fine-tune his condition for the Tour de France but also to complete the so-called “Triple Crown” before his great rival Pogacar. In essence, to win all three Grand Tours at least once, as only 7 other cyclists in history have done (including our Gimondi and Nibali).
Given that the Giro d’Italia is never easy to win, and the Giro-Tour double is even less so, as Pogacar did in 2024, it is at least curious to see Vingegaard’s approach to what risks being a key year for his career.
Is there room for any outsiders?
Talking about Remco Evenepoel as an outsider for the 2026 Tour de France is almost laughable, given the Belgian’s talent, multiple Olympic and World champion in time trials and road races.
However, Evenepoel will race with RedBull-Bora this year, the other team aiming to win titles and which has perhaps realized that Roglic is nearing the end of his career.
Already a third-place finisher on the Paris podium once, Evenepoel is the third favorite of all bookmakers behind Pogacar and Vingegaard. And rightly so, in 2025 he withdrew for psychological reasons, rather than physical ones, considering his relationship with his previous team, Deceuninck-QuickStep.
Remco is an extreme rider, undoubtedly the best in the world against the clock, and he could wear the first Yellow Jersey in the team time trial in Barcelona. In a 2026 Tour de France with so few kilometers against the clock, it’s better to start by making things clear right away.
At first glance, it’s hard to imagine other riders capable of challenging the usual three. Almeida will be Pogacar’s domestique and Lipowitz (third last year) will be Evenepoel’s.
Will Visma have learned from their mistakes in recent years? Pushing too hard only to see Pogacar almost stroll past was not a good look.
The odds for Ayuso are intriguing, as he has finally changed teams (he is now at Lidl-Trek) and with the 2026 Tour de France starting from Barcelona, he could be more motivated than others. However, he too is a rider capable of anything, for better or worse, as demonstrated, for example, in last year’s Giro d’Italia.
Where to bet on cycling
Legal online Italian bookmakers offer new registrants welcome bonuses. Below is an informative comparison of welcome bonuses, including details on how they work, terms, and conditions. Here is a comparison:
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