Serie A, the prediction for Napoli – Fiorentina: crisis versus survival and a draw in the first half to explore

Serie A, the prediction for Napoli - Fiorentina: crisis versus survival and a draw in the first half to explore Napoli Italy, September 26th, 2024: football Serie A match between Napoli vs Palermo at Diego Armando Maradona Stadium. In the pic: Scott McTominay

Napoli and Fiorentina face each other in this 23rd-round Serie A clash, a strange situation considering the prestige of both teams. That’s life this year, especially for the Viola, who are struggling with a difficult-to-solve crisis.

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Let’s take a look at everything about the match at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, where Conte’s Azzurri will try to react after their disappointing Champions League elimination.

As always, our predictions are made with the odds of the best legal bookmakers in mind.

Where to watch Napoli – Fiorentina on TV

The match will be visible on Dazn, at 6 PM on Saturday, January 31, 2026.

Probable Lineups

Napoli is in its usual emergency situation, with few outfield players available and a bleak future at the moment. For Fiorentina, it’s been a bittersweet week with the Coppa Italia elimination to put behind them: Vanoli is now leaning towards a 4-3-3 formation with Kean in doubt.

  • NAPOLI (3-4-2-1): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, J.Jesus; Spinazzola, Lobotka, McTominay, Gutierrez; Vergara, Elmas; Hojlund. Coach: Conte
  • FIORENTINA (4-3-3): De Gea; Dodò, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Ndour, Fagioli, Mandragora; Solomon, Piccoli, Gudmunsson. Coach: Vanoli

Head-to-Head

Very balanced overall: 65 wins to 60 for Napoli against Fiorentina, plus 51 draws. However, note that the current streak in favor of the Azzurri is 4 wins and a draw.

Between Conte and Vanoli, there are two previous encounters, both in favor of the former, with a total of 3 goals scored and 0 conceded.

Napoli – Fiorentina, 1X2 Odds

The home team is decidedly favored, an extreme team that rarely draws and almost exclusively earns points at home.

OperatorNapoliDrawFiorentina
Bwin (scommesse)
1.713.604.80
Sisal (scommesse)
1.753.505.25
Bet365 (scommesse)
1.733.505.25

Over/Under and Goal/No Goal Odds

Confidence in the under and in Goal for Napoli and Fiorentina. At most, total balance between Goal and No Goal.

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OperatorOver 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goalsGoalNo Goal
Bwin (scommesse)
1.931.721.931.73
Sisal (scommesse)
1.951.751.901.80
Bet365 (scommesse)
2.001.801.911.91

Digest the Champions League flop, aim for survival

These are very difficult days for Napoli, with poor results and a never-ending injury list. They have to digest what was effectively a failure, the early elimination from the Champions League, and all things considered, they could have faced a worse opponent right after exiting Europe.

For their part, Fiorentina is truly unpredictable; every time they seem capable of shaking off their fears and moving away from the relegation zone, a negative result arrives, even a surprising one, like the home loss to Cagliari.

The Viola’s stated objective is to snatch a point, perhaps by taking advantage of their opponents’ inevitable physical and mental fatigue. Of course, given Vanoli’s past encounters with Conte and Conte’s record against Fiorentina (12 wins and 3 draws in 17 matches), hopes don’t seem high.

Much will then depend on Kean’s availability, even though Piccoli has been performing quite well after some disastrous performances. The Viola, however, are unbeaten in their last two away games.

The prediction: draw in the first half

Napoli is an extreme team, while Fiorentina might take advantage, at least initially, of the Azzurri’s post-Champions League slump. Hence, the X in the first half, well above even odds, catches our attention.

OperatorDraw first half
Bwin (scommesse)
2.10
Sisal (scommesse)
2.20
Bet365 (scommesse)
2.20

Correct Score

A draw in the first half and at the end too? We’ll keep one of these options, the other is a narrow victory for Napoli over Fiorentina.

Operator1-1 correct score2-1 correct score
Bwin (scommesse)
7.008.50
Sisal (scommesse)
7.008.50
Bet365 (scommesse)
6.508.50

Where to bet on Napoli – Fiorentina

A highly delicate match for these two teams: legal online bookmakers in Italy offer new registrants welcome bonuses. Below is an informative comparison of welcome betting bonuses, including details on how they work, terms, and conditions. Here’s a comparison:

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