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From Trump to Polymarket’s “hybrid” victory at TAR: the breakthrough of predictive betting in the World and in Italy [EXCLUSIVE]

Thomas Alvieri4 months ago4 months ago089 mins

Implement specific rules and processes for mediated access;

• • Complete integration with US intermediaries.

Kalshi is a fully regulated predictive contract exchange by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States, becoming one of the most important compliant infrastructure exchanges for institutional and retail traders.

Kalshi, Inc. is a US prediction market platform founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, two former financial analysts who met at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Today it is headquartered in New York City and is a private company with a market valuation of approximately $11 billion after a $1 billion funding round, with investors including Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, Y Combinator, and asset managers like Charles Schwab and Henry Kravis.

Kalshi is not a normal betting site: its offering is based on “event contracts”, financial contracts that allow users to buy/sell predictions on the outcome of real events — from climate and economic data, to politics, as well as sports and legislative results — with the contract price reflecting the market’s perceived probability. Unlike traditional bookmakers, Kalshi does not bet against the user but acts as an organized market where buyers and sellers meet, and it earns profits through transaction commissions.

The company operates as a regulated exchange in the United States under the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which in 2020 approved Kalshi as a Designated Contract Market — the first platform of its kind to obtain this federal recognition for predictive markets. This status allows it to offer tradable events, but it also entails legal challenges with individual states (especially when Kalshi began offering markets on sports results), because some state regulators believe that certain contracts constitute actual unauthorized sports betting.

In summary, Kalshi is seeking to redefine the boundary between predictive finance and regulated gaming, attracting both institutional liquidity and the attention of regulators, and positioning itself as a global market infrastructure for trading in advance on the outcome of real events.

Kalshi: the profile

The currency used by Kalshi ➡️ USD fiat — the main market is in US dollars.

Kalshi also allows deposits via stablecoins or cryptocurrencies in some cases, but these are automatically converted to USD before absorbing trading contracts.

Fiat currency means, from Latin, both made (by decree). When we talk about fiat currencies, we are talking about traditional currencies like the dollar, euro, yen, ruble, etc.

Key features:

• • Focus on CFTC regulated contracts such as election events, economic data, sports, and other real-world events.

• • Direct access in Fiat currency (USD) and institutional-grade broker infrastructure.

👉 Although Kalshi may accept crypto deposits → USD, its core operation is tied to fiat currency markets, not native tokens or stablecoins as the primary market medium.

PredictIt

• One of the best-known prediction markets in the United States focused on national politics.
• Uses US dollars (USD) fiat for deposits and payments.

Opinion.Trade

• Emerging platform with a strong presence on the BNB Chain and use of crypto-native tokens as a trading medium for predictive events.

Crypto.com Prediction Markets / ForecastEx / others

• Some exchanges like Crypto.com offer prediction markets sections integrated within their platforms, using crypto and stablecoins from the ecosystem to bet on specific events.

Robinhood Markets

• Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a US fintech company based in Menlo Park that offers a commission-free online trading and investment platform for stocks, ETFs, options, and cryptocurrencies directly from its app and web. It became famous for democratizing access to financial markets for retail investors (with features like fractional shares and zero commissions) and was at the center of attention during the GameStop saga in 2021. The company generates revenue primarily from payment-for-order-flow, interest on balances, and margin lending, and continues to expand with new digital financial services.
• Robinhood also operates in prediction markets since 2025, offering users the ability to buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of future events (e.g., sports results, economic decisions, politics) through a prediction markets hub integrated into its app.

The Synthetic Comparison of the main platforms

Currencies

✔️ The main prediction markets use a combination of currencies:

• Crypto stablecoins (USDC) on platforms like Polymarket.
• USD fiat on regulated platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt.

✔️ In the United States, it’s not that platforms have completely eliminated stablecoins, but Kalshi structures the use of cryptocurrencies as a gateway to convert them into fiat market, while Polymarket is trying to balance the use of stablecoins and regulatory compliance to fully re-enter the US market.

Within a few months, the advance of prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, and the “event contracts” ecosystem) has forced the two giants of US betting — FanDuel (Flutter) and DraftKings — to make a choice: suffer competitors who bypass the state borders of traditional betting, or enter it with a proprietary product.

And the answer, today, is clear: they have entered it.

What are stablecoins and their geopolitical role

A stablecoin pegged to the dollar is, in essence, a digital dollar: a cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value (1 token = 1 USD) thanks to reserves in cash, government bonds, or liquid instruments held by the issuer. It is used to move money on the blockchain with the speed of crypto trading but with the stability of fiat currency, thus becoming the “cash” of digital markets, from payments to prediction markets. The most common are USDT (Tether), the queen for global volumes, USDC (Circle/Coinbase), perceived as more regulated and transparent in the US, and DAI, decentralized and collateralized on-chain. But their weight goes beyond finance: stablecoins have also become a geopolitical tool, as they effectively export the dollar outside the traditional banking system, allowing millions of people — and sometimes countries under sanctions or with weak currencies — to use “digital USD” without going through SWIFT or central banks. For Washington, it is monetary soft power; for regulators, it is also a systemic risk and a control issue: too many dollars circulating outside the banking perimeter mean fewer levers on capital, sanctions, and monetary policy. In short: fintech technology on the surface, but a struggle for economic sovereignty flows underneath.

The question on the minds of many keen observers is: “Are traditional bookmakers just watching while platforms operating (in most cases in markets not yet regulated) ‘eat up’ market share?”

In October 2025, the stock market crash of Flutter (owner of the leading US bookmaker Fanduel) and DraftKings sounded like an alarm bell.

Some stock market analysts were quick to draw a connection between the financial markets’ reaction and the new competition from Polymarket and its peers in sports.

There is also a significant detail, given that the decisive battle for the future of global betting is being fought in the USA (with substantial investments and strong “bets” and investments from Wall Street).

In important states (like California), betting is not legally permitted, but with the loophole of “financial” derivative contracts (recognized at the federal level), Polymarket and Kalshi are effectively collecting bets where no other betting operator is allowed. In the long run, this gap risks becoming insurmountable.

Other observers, however, attributed the causes to the negative results recorded by the house in the NFL (National Football League) in the last quarter, with many favored teams winning. Certainly, the unfavorable payout did not help the big players.

It’s difficult to give definitive answers, but one thing is certain: since then, the two main US bookmakers have announced that they are entering the predictive betting market with their own proprietary platforms.

FanDuel and DraftKings decided to move at that moment.

As I said, event contracts — framed as federally regulated derivatives/contracts — have allowed prediction markets to offer “bets” on sports and events even in states where online sports betting is not legal (California and Texas are among the wealthiest and most populous states). This has created a new competitive front and a jurisdiction war between federal regulation and state authorities.

Initially, prediction market platforms only offered binary options (yes or no, for example), but since 2025, they have introduced multiple options, including for sports, effectively becoming true betting platforms, but unregulated or operating in gray markets, thus having a competitive advantage.

When this step was taken, especially by financial exchanges — as I anticipated — Wall Street reacted negatively and also penalized stocks related to traditional betting, such as Flutter.

Precisely for this reason, the two main US bookmakers, Fanduel (owned by Flutter) and DraftKings, have adapted and are launching their own platforms.

FanDuel has not copied the Polymarket model: it has chosen a hyper-institutional path. At the end of December 2025, FanDuel and CME Group announced the launch of FanDuel Predicts, with an initial rollout in some states, under the umbrella of the federal financial derivatives oversight commission.

• The regulatory component is indeed one of the key points of the project: FanDuel Predicts operates under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regime, with contracts structured as event markets that are more reminiscent of financial instruments than traditional bets. The platform was conceived from the outset to be accessible in all 50 US states, a goal achieved in the first few months of 2026 thanks to a rapid and well-planned rollout. In 18 of these states, including key markets like California, Texas, and Florida, users can trade contracts on sports results as long as traditional online betting is not legally available; in other states, the active markets are those related to finance, economy, and commodities, such as S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, or oil and gold prices.
  
• The trading aspect: FanDuel Predicts’ logic is simple but revolutionary; each market is a binary “yes/no” contract, reflecting the perceived probability of the event. This structure, integrated into the mobile app with simple and intuitive trading features, allows users to buy, sell, or liquidate positions before the event concludes, just like in a financial market. The partnership with CME Group is not a branding gimmick: it brings behind it a database, infrastructure, and derivatives expertise, essential to give credibility and stability to a market that would otherwise risk remaining confined to the crypto audience or only sports bettors.

In the press release (and in the first public details), the approach is very clear: contracts on financial benchmarks (like stock indices and commodities) and economic indicators, in addition to the “event-based” perimeter. It is a way to:

• link the product to a supply chain perceived as a “market” rather than “game”;
• reduce reputational/regulatory risk;
• leverage FanDuel’s user base with a product sellable as “event trading”.

FanDuel Predict’s philosophy

When FanDuel decided to launch FanDuel Predicts, it didn’t just add a new feature to its app. It did something more subtle, and potentially more disruptive: it tried to shift the cultural boundary between betting and finance. For years, online betting has been presented as entertainment, adrenaline, cheering. Here, however, the grammar changes. You no longer bet on a match: you trade probabilities, buy scenarios, sell expectations. It’s the lexicon of markets, not betting slips. The collaboration with CME Group, the Chicago derivatives giant, is not a technical detail but a political manifesto: it means telling investors and regulators that these contracts resemble simplified futures more than bar bets. And indeed, the regulatory umbrella is not that of state gambling, but that of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the same authority that oversees commodities and financial markets. Inside FanDuel Predicts, you will find binary markets, yes or no, which can concern the outcome of a match but also the trend of the S&P 500, inflation, the price of oil. It is a silent mutation: the sportsbook becomes a small popular stock exchange, accessible from a smartphone, where the user is not just a fan but a micro-trader. And above all, it is a strategic move to circumvent the fragmented geography of US betting laws: where sports betting is still prohibited, federally regulated event contracts can still pass. Thus, FanDuel not only expands its offering but the very perimeter of the market, intercepting an audience that is not looking for stadium thrills, but for tools to monetize opinions about the world. If prediction markets truly become a new asset class, FanDuel Predicts is the signal that Wall Street and Las Vegas have stopped looking at each other with suspicion and have discreetly started talking to each other.

CME Group

CME Group is a leading US global derivatives market company, operating major exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and COMEX. Through these platforms, it offers trading in futures and options on a wide range of assets — from interest rates and stock indices to currencies, commodities, and energy — enabling institutional investors and traders worldwide to manage risk, hedge positions, and access global benchmarks in financial markets.

DraftKings opted for the intermediary route with its own app. The well-known bookmaker officially entered prediction markets on December 19, 2025 with DraftKings Predictions, explaining that the operation is carried out through a subsidiary registered as an Introducing Broker and NFA member (National Futures Association), and is available in 38 states (including major markets).

For DraftKings, the value is twofold:

1. broadening the demand for its product outside the state-regulated sportsbook boundaries;
2. presiding over a format that, if consolidated, would become an alternative channel to traditional odds — especially where betting is not legalized.

It is no coincidence that, as early as 2025, CEO Jason Robins openly spoke about the opportunity in “non-sports-betting states“.

Market research: how much prediction markets can “damage” bookmakers

Ultimately, setting aside the dust kicked up by tweets, stock market alarms, and regulatory anxieties, a rather American truth remains: prediction markets make a lot of noise, but little real damage. At least for now.

According to a report released by Citizens Equity Research, prediction markets have diverted about 5% of the regulated gaming volume from traditional bookmakers. Translated into dollars: about $8 billion per year. A figure that seems impressive only until you remember that the handle — the volume of bets — is not revenue, is not margin, is not profit. It’s movement. Like highway traffic: it doesn’t say how much the toll booth earns.

The analysis is signed by Jordan Bender, who immediately gets to the point: that 5% is slightly higher than previously estimated, but it is not an event capable of changing the fundamentals of the sector. No hemorrhage, no systemic business theft.

From the companies’ perspective, says Bender, the impact is a wash, a break-even. DraftKings, FanDuel (and therefore the parent company Flutter Entertainment) are not losing sleep: they are already present, directly or indirectly, in the world of prediction markets. If the game changes form, they change tables.

Some more trouble might come for those who have remained on the sidelines: Bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, Penn Entertainment. But even here, in the analyst’s words, we are talking about “slightly negative” scenarios. Nothing structural, nothing that justifies hysterics.

An exception is Rush Street Interactive: little exposure to prediction markets, excellent stock performance in the last year, and a strategy more focused on iGaming, which offers a certain immunity. On the contrary, paradoxically, the company could even benefit from the phenomenon: if yes/no markets erode the tax revenue from sports betting, they could push more US states to legalize traditional iGaming. The usual America: you lose on one side, you gain on the other.

But if companies manage, players do not. And this is where the story changes tone.

Data shows that retail users of prediction markets burn through money faster than any other form of gambling. In the first 90 days of entering these platforms, the average loss is 7% of bets, compared to 1% recorded in the rest of the online gambling ecosystem.

The reason is simple and cruel: in prediction markets, ordinary players do not compete against the house, but against other players, often much more prepared. “Sharp” bettors — those with models, official data, sophisticated pricing — find an ideal ground here, especially since platforms like Kalshi actively incentivize them.

The damage is amplified by another detail: the average bet. In prediction markets, it exceeds $185, more than triple the average of $55 in regulated sportsbooks. Losing more, more often, and with higher stakes is a lethal combination.

Bender synthesizes it without poetry but effectively: prediction markets are creating worse losses for the worst players, while the more skilled ones win more. Furthermore, the odds are generally worse than traditional bookmakers. Throughout the 2025 NFL season, for example, the prices offered by Kalshi consistently proved less favorable than those of DraftKings and FanDuel.

So why all this panic in the financial markets?

According to the analyst, because the reaction was disproportionate. DraftKings and Flutter stocks lost 33% and 30% respectively from their 52-week highs, but the real impact of prediction markets does not justify such cannibalization even remotely.

To be clear: a single bad Monday Night Football game can have a negative impact on EBITDA equal to — or greater than — everything that prediction markets are currently subtracting from the sector. And in the long run, Bender adds, the expansion of legalized online sports betting will tend to further restrict the space for these alternative markets, simply by offering a better product.

Finally, the map. Not all of America is the same. According to Juice Reel data, Florida, Georgia, and Texas remain on the sidelines of this phenomenon. Leading the way are the usual suspects: New York, New Jersey, California, Washington, and Ohio.

Prediction markets are not the end of bookmakers, nor the beginning of a new golden age. They are a noisy, fascinating, often ruthless experiment for the less equipped. And as always, in the great American casino, the real losers are not those who play the game, but those who think they have understood the rules without ever having read them thoroughly.

In summary:

• Prediction markets have found a loophole: federal regulation allows them to reach states where traditional betting is not permitted.
• FanDuel responds with a “CME + FanDuel users” model: FanDuel Predicts.
• DraftKings responds with an app and a “finance-style” structure: DraftKings Predictions (IB + NFA).
• In the background, however, there is the regulatory war and the risk that some offerings will be limited state by state.

One thing is evident happening on Wall Street: investors are desperately seeking listed companies that have a connection — even indirect — with this new segment.

The problem concerns the big names in prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which remain private companies. Conversely, some listed companies orbiting the theme, such as Robinhood Markets, are highly diversified financial groups, not platforms dedicated to trading predictive contracts.

The same applies to betting operators like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment: they are now entering the world of prediction markets, but it is likely that, at least in the short term, this activity will represent only a marginal fraction of their revenues.

In the USA, there is one stock that has caught investors’ attention: High Roller, a company that manages online casinos in Scandinavian markets and is based in Malta.

Investors’ hunger for opportunities in this sector also explains the recent enthusiasm around the High Roller stock. It is not a “pure” prediction market company, but it is one of the few listed companies that allow investors to get close to that world.

When a new idea meets the market, it often happens like this: first euphoria, then selection. The price rises, falls, settles. And in the end, as always, only one question remains: how much of that promise will actually become revenue?

2026 has only completed one month, and the High Roller stock has already given its investors a rollercoaster experience. At the beginning of the year, the price hovered around $2. Then, in a matter of days, the surge: almost $24. Today, the value has halved.

A large part of that rally is concentrated on a single date, January 14, when the stock recorded an incredible +688 percent. That day, High Roller announced a partnership on prediction markets with Crypto.com. From that moment on, many traders began to look at the company not just as a simple online casino operator, but as a possible indirect bet on the world of event contracts.

“We are excited to bring High Roller to the United States through this strategic partnership with Crypto.com,” said CEO Seth Young. “Combining the huge appeal of prediction markets with our distribution capabilities is an extremely exciting opportunity.”

High Roller manages the online casino brands High Roller and Fruta and went public on Wall Street in October 2024, after reducing the size of its initial public offering just a month earlier.

How much of prediction markets will actually enter High Roller’s accounts, and with what margins? Today, no one knows, but the investors’ interest in these stocks remains tangible.

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